2017 NFL Draft – Broncos trade scenarios in the first round.


Good morning, with this brief article I would like to put some light on two possible first round trading partners the Broncos might have identified: one for trading up and another to trade down and get values pick to re-invest (and how I would invest them).

  1. Trade Up scenario:

I personally don’t think this draft is really loaded with top talent at all: the opposite with a lots of talk of big time DB class that I don’t see (is very good CB and S class but those top 15 prospect are not really top 15 IMO, more solid 1st rounders or 1st to 2nd rounders). This hype might work in favor of the Broncos and push some true value player down toward pick 15 overall. There is where they will be taken and there is where the Broncos could possibly find a trade partner.

I’m actually picturing the Baltimore Ravens (that actually own the 16th overall pick) as the team the Broncos would want to leapfrog: the Ravens (as the the Colts, Titans an Buccaneers) could share the Broncos interest in several different players (in example TE Howard, ILB Foster, RB Cook, WR-RB McCaffrey and OT Lamp: I don’t think the Broncos will trade up for any other OLinemen).

If some of these player will be pushed down (I think Lamp will be a “surprise riser” even thought from games videos his talent is quite clear and his performance at the combine just underlined it) by other teams reaches then they could be available between picks 10th and 15th overall.

The Indianapolis Colts owns the 15th pick overall and also have big needs at the Oline (one of their major need), Dline (they need impactful players) and RB (they need a playmaker) and at 20th overall could maybe find more excuse to draft one the OT that at 15th would be major reaches.

The “Trade Up”

On the trade chart the 15th overall pick scores 1050 points meanwhile Broncos’ 20th overall scores 850 points.

The Broncos could add their own 3rd round pick (not the compensatory): the 82nd overall which value is 180 points and the 5th round compensatory pick they received for losing Danny Trevathan: the 177th overall that scores 20.2 points. These two picks added to the first rounder scores together 1100,2 points. Fair and cool as it’s possible to see in this table below:

Team Picks Involved Scores Total for teams
Indianapolis 15th 1050 1050
Denver 20th 850 1050,2
Denver 82nd 180
Denver 177th 20,2

In this way the Broncos could select one prospect that they really like in exchange of some picks that will be the price to get a coveted player.

  1. The trade down scenario:

Now the following is my best scenario to trade down and find some excuses to draft one of those OT that nobody seems to really like at 20th overall and getting some extra picks to re-use to trade up in the second or first round: here is what I think it could be done.

The Seahawks got two extra 3rd round draft selections in form of compensatory picks and have plenty of ammunition to trade up for a guy they might really love (let’s say an OLB or super athletic DE that could play both DE and OLB that goes under the name of Taco Charlton, given that the Broncos are not really high on him too).

The “Trade Down”

Under this scenario the Seahawks would trade up from the 26th pick overall and acquire the 20th overall pick (which value is 850 points) and will give the Broncos the 26th overall pick (700 points), the 90th overall pick  (140 points), the  210th overall pick (value: 7 points) and a 2018 6th round pick. Below the table with the trade value:

Team Picks Involved Scores Total for teams
Denver 20th 850 850
Seattle 26th 700 >850
Seattle 90nd 140
Seattle 210th 7
Seattle 6th in 2018 Between 15 and 4

Why would Denver trade down?

Well, maybe those prospects that I mentioned in the trade up scenario are all gone before 15th overall or the Colts and/or anybody else aren’t interested in trade with the Broncos (as I mentioned several teams between 14th and 19th overall might be targeting the same prospects Denver does, or they might forecast Denver would) or maybe Denver thinks that Lamp would be available also at 26th overall or that his value is little higher than Bolles or Robinson that could be available later on.

Plus the Broncos would get more ammunition to trade back up close to the top of the 2nd round or in the backend of the 1st round included and as I will show in my own scenarios.

After trading with the Seahawks, the Broncos would own the following draft picks:

Overall Pick Round Points
26th 1st Round 700
51st 2nd Round 390
82nd 3rd Round 180
90th 3rd Round 140
101st 3rd Round 96
126th 4th Round 46
177th 5th Round 20,2
203rd 6th Round 9,8
210th 6th Round 7
238th 7th Round 1
252nd 7th Round 1
253rd 7th Round 1

The trade up after trading down Part I

I think the Broncos, under this scenario, will use the 26th overall pick on an Olinemen and especially will select Lamp if he would still be on the board and will play LT as a rookie. If Lamp is already off the board,  The Brocos most probably will select one between Bolles and Cam Robinson. I don’t like Ramczyk (or better I like him in the late 2nd early 3rd round).

After that I really do like a G in this draft and he could be already gone at 51st overall: the G is Feeney from Indiana and would become immediately the Broncos RG starter, pushing incumbent LG Garcia to be the quality depth at both G and C, where more or less he belongs at the moment.

Even if not for Feeney, the Broncos under this scenario will own too many picks and would have ammunition to trade up in the top of the 2nd round to grab a “falling” player that they think could contribute as a rookie and also turn out to be a long time starter, whoever he’d be.

To do that they could trade with the Los Angeles Rams (picking exactly one pick ahead of the San Diego Rams) for the 37th overall pick:

Team Picks Involved Scores Total for teams
Los Angeles Rams 37th 530 530
Denver 51st 390 530
Denver 90th 140

The Trade Up after trading down Part II

An alternative trade up scenario would be to trade up into the very end of the 1st round: selecting a player in the 1st round will give the organization the right to the 5th year option to eventually re-sign the player. This second trade up scenario could involve, instead of the Los Angeles Rams, the Pittsburg Steelers:

Team Picks Involved Scores Total for teams
Pittsburg 30th 620 620
Denver 51st 390 626
Denver 90th 140
Denver 101st 96

This second scenario would even make me happier because of the 5th year option but would leave the Broncos with only one pick (82nd overall in the third round) in the second day of the draft, which I don’t really like.

Anyhow, these are the best option I could think of for when draft will enroll in one month.

Go Broncos!!!

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